Next week is looking pretty good for many areas with high pressure being the dominant feature and whilst it won’t be scorching UK wide some areas may see temperatures creeping into the low-mid twenties. The charts below show 850hpa temperatures and sea level pressure for Monday of next week. As can be clearly seen high pressure is in play and as a result winds will be light with temperatures responding nicely. The yellows and oranges on the 850hpa temperatures and sea level pressure chart represent milder upper air which has an affect on temperatures at the surface.

850hpa temperature and sea level pressure chart from the GFS weather model – Monday 21st May 2018.

UK maximum temperature chart from the GFS weather model – Monday 21st May 2018.

Some of the weather models are indicating a slow change from the west/northwest with cooler air moving into the UK, however it has very little support from other weather models and any cooler air that moves in would only be temporary. The GFS weather model and the ECMWF model suggests high pressure with warmer temperatures even by midweek of next. The below charts are from the ECMWF model showing next Wednesday and Thursday’s 850hpa temperatures with sea level pressure and they both suggest high pressure with warmer temperatures remain in charge.

850hpa temperature and sea level pressure chart – ECMWF model – Wednesday 23rd May 2018

850hpa temperature and sea level pressure chart – ECMWF model – Thursday 24th May 2018

The maximum temperature chart from the GFS weather model for Thursday 24th May suggests the high teens-low twenties across many areas. For some areas these temperatures would be higher due to the low resolution of the GFS weather model.

UK maximum temperature chart – GFS Weather Model – Thursday 24th May 2018.

Looking further ahead into the long bank holiday weekend we may just see temperatures creep up even more with a cracking weekend expected at the moment, however the weather models are suggesting it cooling off/going downhill on bank holiday Monday (typical) but in forecasting terms it is some time away. Below are charts from the GFS weather model showing maximum temperatures and 850hpa temperatures for next Friday. Below these charts you will also find a couple of charts showing 850hpa temperatures from our CFSv2 long range forecasting model covering later in the period and as can be seen the start of June is looking good at the moment!

850hpa temperature & sea level pressure chart – GFS weather model – Friday 25th May 2018

UK maximum temperature chart – GFS weather model – Friday 25th May 2018

UKWF CFSV2 long range forecasting model charts

UKWF CFSv2 LRF Model – 850hpa temperatures & Sea level pressure – Sat 2nd June 2018

UKWF CFSv2 LRF Model – 850hpa temperatures & Sea level pressure – Sun 3rd June 2018

UKWF CFSv2 LRF Model – 850hpa temperatures & Sea level pressure – Monday 4th June 2018

To conclude next week and the bank holiday weekend is looking fairly decent at the moment! I hope you enjoyed this article. I’ve just launched my new pro radars application for Android and I’m sure it will come in handy if you’re a weather enthusiast. Click here to check out the new features on the google play store. 

Links to resources: GFS Weather ModelECMWF Model.

Lewis


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