Many of us are wondering how the summer will pan out, personally I’m a winter person but I do like the summer months not for the heat it may produce but for the thunderstorms! The weather during the summer months has a huge impact on our activities, food we eat, social impact, health impacts and our lifestyles in general.


It has been a few years since I attempted a long range forecast like this, however I would like to think it’s something you don’t lose overnight! In previous years and past UK summer weather forecasts I’ve produced in general, I’ve provided a lot of technical information which looks pretty but who needs to know all of that, we all want the same end result don’t we? Which is of course what is the weather going to do?!


I’ve simplified this years UK summer forecast 2018 so it is easier to understand/read. My predictions are based on a series of long range forecast models, signals and experience. As many of you know forecasting long range is tricky, however I normally do pretty well with my long range predictions. This UK summer forecast for 2018 is a preliminary forecast and will be reviewed middle of June where I will look at what September has to offer.


UK Summer Weather Forecast 2018 – Predictions


June – UK Summer 2018


June is expected to start off with high pressure in charge bringing settled and warm weather across the southern half of the United Kingdom, however northern and far northwestern areas are likely to be cooler with the main bulk of any precipitation expected here too.


Later in the month I expect the Azores high to be the main player in our weather which would lead to high pressure and settled weather being the dominating feature, as a result we would see much warmer temperatures.


Towards the latter part of June I expect more in the way of unsettled weather with low pressure to the west of the United Kingdom close by. At times we may see low pressure combining with warmer continental air from the south thus leading to a risk of thunderstorms/thundery outbreaks.


UK Summer Weather Forecast 2018 – 850hpa temperatures and sea level pressure to start June. – CFS long range model.


Temperatures: Average to slightly above average.


Precipitation: Below Average.


Junes conclusion: Not a bad month at all with the warmest weather expected across the southern half of the United Kingdom. Cooler across the far north and northwest with most of any Atlantic systems affecting here.


July – UK Summer 2018


July is expected to be a rather unsettled month on a whole. Whilst we will see warmer spells the weather will be predominately unsettled with low pressure more likely than high pressure. Thundery showers will also be greater this month. Precipitation amounts will be greater across southern and western parts of the United Kingdom. Towards the end of the month is when the warmer temperatures are to be expected with high pressure perhaps settling things down.


Temperatures: Average.


Precipitation: Average to slightly above.


July’s conclusion: Unsettled month on a whole with low pressure the dominating feature. Temperatures won’t be significantly affected as despite the unsettled conditions we will draw up milder air from the south/near continent at times.


August – UK Summer 2018

A warm start to August is expected however it won’t last. Thundery plumes will be the order of the month as we see very mild air being drawn up from France and Iberia whilst combining with low pressure close to or just to the west of the United Kingdom. August is expected to be rather unsettled like July, however the warmest spells of weather are expected around mid month. Most of the precipitation will be across Ireland, Northern Ireland and southern parts of England and Wales with northern areas seeing the driest weather.


UK Summer Weather Forecast 2018 – Enjoying the warm weather!


Temperatures: Above average


Precipitation: Above average


August conclusion: A very warm but unsettled month with above average precipitation for many areas. The 2nd week and 3rd week of August look most unsettled. If you like thunderstorms this certainly could be the month!

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