It is that time again, everyone is asking what this summer will bring. Us British are obsessed with the weather and most, not all, like to see a warm and settled summer. What does this summer have in store? Below I have my annual predictions, last years forecast couldn’t have gone any better, although I feel this years is a lot trickier looking at the signals.
My long range forecasts summarise each month by looking at temperature, pressure and precipitation anomalies, you’ll find for each month expected precipitation and temperature, for example above average, average or below average. Above average in temperature signals warmer and at times hot weather and the same applies for precipitation. Above average precipitation means it will be wetter.
May 2019 – UK Summer Forecast 2019
A cool and wetter month at times with low pressure being the dominant feature. Mid-month onwards we’ll see the weather trying to settle down, however northern blocking moves in at the wrong time which would lead to much cooler temperatures at times, we’re likely to see easterly and north/northeasterly winds developing bringing cooler weather.
At times we will see lows running close to the UK which may source some milder air in at times from the near continent, especially across the southern half of the United Kingdom with the northern half remaining on the cool and wetter side. When these lows runs close and milder air does move in we’re likely to see heavy pulses of rain and thundery showers.
Temperature trend: Average to slightly below
June 2019 – UK Summer Forecast 2019
A warmer and more settled start to June is expected, however I expect it to go downhill for a time with low pressure systems still rattling in from the Atlantic. This does not mean June will be a cool month as we’re likely to see some warm air being sourced from the near continent as these lows move in to the affect the United Kingdom. A warm up mid-month onwards with much warmer weather likely to develop. Thunderstorm risk greater mid-month onwards. It will be the southern half of the United Kingdom seeing the warmest temperatures.
Temperature trend: Average
Precipitation: Above average
July 2019 – UK Summer Forecast 2019
I expect the start of July to be dominated by higher pressure and much warmer conditions. Precipitation will be above average across Scotland and NI with lower pressure expected here, below average precipitation amounts across the southern half of the United Kingdom. England and Wales will see temperatures well into the mid to high twenties. Thunderstorm risk increases later in the month as does precipitation amounts as we see Spanish plumes at times.
Temperature trend: Average to slightly above
Precipitation: Above average
August 2019 – UK Summer Forecast 2019
A very warm, if not hot, muggy and thundery month of weather. Very warm air moving up from the continent, low pressure anchored to the west of the UK at times edging closer to combine with plumes of very moist and warm air. BANG, thunderstorm month!
Temperature trend: Above average
Precipitation: Below average north, average to slightly above average south
UK Summer Weather Forecast 2019 Conclusion: Overall a warmer than average Summer 2019 with above average rainfall. A cool start but then warm, hot and humid at times with an increased number of thunderstorm events compared to previous summers. Perfect summer for weather fanatics? Comment below and let me know your thoughts.
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Forecast by Lewis