Winter will soon be here and at GBWeather we’re busy preparing all of our tools, resources and fine tuning our services for what we expect to be a rather busy winter period. Us weather obsessed Brits are always wondering what summer or winter will bring but a lot of people forget about Autumn, I for one love Autumn, beautiful, those cooler nights sandwiched in between wet and blustery days with the leaves finally starting to fall from the trees, when the latter occurs I know winter is soon around the corner.
Now before I go into detail with regards to the up coming UK Winter 2018/19, I’ll give a brief indication as to what type of weather to expect during September, October and the start of November.
Already we’ve seen a rather active period of unsettled weather with areas of low pressure rattling in from the Atlantic bringing wet and windy conditions to parts of the United Kingdom. The reason for this is that we’ve seen a rather active and strong jet stream that has been positioned all the way from the eastern seaboard of America, across the mid Atlantic and over the United Kingdom. This has effectively created a conveyor belt for low pressure systems to develop, deepen and head into the United Kingdom.
When you end up with this rather zonal pattern, especially towards the end of Autumn and moving into winter, it really can be hard to shift. The good news is that despite the rather zonal start to Autumn we’re already seeing signs of high pressure trying to reestablish which will of course settle things down. Other signs to look out for this early is northern blocking or height rises towards Scandinavia. We’ve seen already on some GFS weather runs cold air from the far north (Greenland and the Arctic) trying to filter south this early. Below are my expectations for the rest of September, October and the start of November.
Rest of September 2018
High pressure establishing and becoming the dominating feature in the weather. The southern half of the United Kingdom fairing best in terms of temperatures with cooler weather and a risk of unsettled weather across the far northwest at times. Night time frosts occurring at times, especially across northern areas (rural parts of central northern England and Scotland).
Temperature trend: Average to slightly above
Precipitation: Average overall (below average precipitation covering the last 8 days of September)
High pressure well in charge to start October bringing settled conditions across the United Kingdom. At times we may see areas of low pressure work their way in from the Atlantic, however these are most likely to affect northern areas rather than southern areas initially. As we head towards the middle of October the jet stream will ramp up once again bringing some very unsettled conditions across most of the United Kingdom, gale force winds, severe gales and heavy rain will all be increasing elements in the forecast.
Temperature trend: Average
Precipitation: Below average
Starting unsettled and cooler, especially across northern areas with cold zonality at times (colder upper air being sourced from the north/northwest and wrapped around areas of low pressure). Bringing snow showers across the hills and mountain ranges of Scotland and perhaps to lower level in the north at times. Towards the end of November I expect the weather to start settling down with high pressure becoming established and as a result cooler days and night time frosts will be a regular occurrence.
Temperature trend: Average to slightly below average
Precipitation: Above average
I fully expect December to be a cold month with the greatest risk of snow and not just across northern areas. We’ll see northern blocking become a dominating feature with the Scandi high (Scandinavian high) coming into play, as a result our weather will predominantly come from the north and northeast with the risk of easterlies developing at times.
Temperature trend: Below average
Precipitation: Average to slightly above
The cold weather in December continuing into January with northerlies the dominating feature, we’re likely to have some mild interludes but the main emphasis will be on a cold January with further snow events. Slider lows trying to move in from the Atlantic will run up against a block of cold air which may bring some remarkable snow events to parts of the south. Turning milder towards the end of January.
Temperature trend: Average to slightly below
Precipitation: Above average
Expectations for February (brief – update to come end of October): A mild month with unsettled weather dominating. We’ve everything covered this winter, never be caught out by snow, rain or lightning again with our pro radars. Click here to become a member to the UK’s best mobile friendly weather radars.
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